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The share of poor diminished from 29 percent to 15 percent, again all in a decade.6Rakesh Kochhar, “6 Key Takeaways About the World’s Emerging Middle Class,” Pew Research Center Fact Tank (blog), July 8, 2015, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/07/08/6-key-takeaways-about-the-worlds-emerging-middle-class/. Many Western states are facing a drop-off in working-age populations, at a time when these states are often heavily in debt. Janet R. Dickson, Barry B. Hughes, and Mohammed T. Irfan, Advancing Global Education: Patterns of Potential Human Progress (New Delhi: Oxford University Press India, 2010), p. 24. Instead, the risk of state-on-state conflict has increased, with new conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine-West; China-Vietnam- Philippines-Japan-United States) and old (India-Pakistan and continued turmoil in the Middle East) proving intractable, despite the clear-cut economic benefits of peaceful relations. However, fragmentation could easily slide into open conflict. Education and income growth also have a “strong relationship with governance quality and especially government effectiveness.”11Ibid. The ongoing crisis in relations between Russia and the West is a reminder that economic interests and cooperation in international security can be sacrificed for the sake of political, geopolitical, and ideological motives and ambitions. This is a shift from an earlier pattern, in which the ouster was an inside job—a coup d’etat—that resulted from divisions within the elite. Emerging-market countries with fragmentary regulatory regimes will be particularly prone to suffering financial crises. China would not use nuclear weapons even if a war between India and Pakistan turned nuclear. The sooner they can bring down their high birth rates, the earlier they can move into the demographic bonus years in which they have the opportunity to boost growth. The aging-population factor also increases risks to public finances. Indeed, the IMF warned in June 2016 that the United States faces potentially significant longer-term challenges to strong and sustained growth, saying, “concerted policy actions are warranted, sooner rather than later…focusing on the causes and consequences of falling labor force participation, an increasingly polarized income distribution, high levels of poverty, and weak productivity.”91International Monetary Fund, Article IV Consultation with the United States of America: Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission (Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2016), http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2016/062216.htm. This fact makes it even more challenging to avoid sacrificing the future for the sake of meeting current social- welfare commitments. Since 2008, there have been few productivity gains in the United States and the West, which is one reason for low wage growth. Besides bringing some peace to Syria and Iraq, lowering Sunni-Shia tensions is a key requirement for building cooperation—no easy task in light of the age-old resentments and more recent distrust. After lengthy negotiations, Turkey settles for a Kurdish state in northern Iraq under its control. To work, any such scheme would also have to be inclusive. The introduction of the “individual empowerment” megatrend was the biggest innovation in Global Trends 2030, and the one that has gained increasing traction. By 2030, the study forecast the cost of cybersecurity will reach $1.2 trillion, or close to 0.9 percent of global GDP.71Ibid. [iv] Chris Abbott, Matthew Clarke, Steve Hathorn, and Scott Hickie. Many developing-country publics still resent Western colonialism and equate any intrusion with past historical wrong. While growing, the global population is also aging at an unprecedented rate. Both the aging and urbanization trends demand special attention; they are significant factors impacting the broader course of global development portrayed in the first three “alternative worlds.”. Borders along the EU’s outside perimeter would harden. Smart grids will only slowly take shape. In 2004, when the NIC’s Global Trends 2020 questioned whether the EU could or would be a superpower in 2020, the European Commission quickly dispatched a memo criticizing the report for even raising the issue. By 2035, a number of threshold countries are likely to emerge. Want to be the first to get up to speed on the meaning of big, breaking international developments? The highly skilled, wherever they come from, are already in demand—and will be in even more demand in the future. There were many factors in the outbreak, but the multiyear drought increased the chances. The big exception is in the United States, where migration has already greatly boosted population growth and will become increasingly important as US birth rates decline and net migration becomes more important than natural increase in the early 2030s.35United Nations, International Migration Report, pp. Conflict between India and China is much less likely during the next twenty years than conflict between India and Pakistan. U.S. Department of Defense, February, 2, 2016. http://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/648901/remarks-by-secretary-carter-on-the-budget-at-the-economic-club-of-washington-dc. Investments in artificial intelligence (A.I.) The risk of armed Islamic extremism in the region is the greatest threat to stability out to 2035 (this issue is simultaneously domestic, transnational, and transregional in nature). Even as non-Western powers grow, it is psychologically hard for the West to think about relinquishing its reins. In the Western case, the proportions of working-age population to the rest of society never spiked the way they did in China. Cyberspace would be turned into a key battleground, where states and terrorist groups would seek advantage by taking out key infrastructure in each other’s territory. As long as Russia shares the continent with the EU and NATO—which possess huge economic, technological, and military power—“without Russia” will be interpreted by Moscow as “against Russia.” Russia will remain a source of instability in Europe, especially because it still has the potential to oppose those projects that it perceives as threats to its national interests. Without a drop in fertility, the world could end up with a population of eleven to twelve billion, instead of about nine billion, by the end of the century. In 2015, the Pew Research Center published a study that saw. Put fighting corruption up there with counterterrorism. How likely is a Sino-US conflict by 2035? The provisions and mechanisms of the NPT (the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the 1997 Additional Protocol) have proven inadequate for this challenge, because the NPT does not ban development of dual-purpose technology and accumulation of critical materials for peaceful purposes. While the global population is growing, it is also becoming more interconnected. The current drop in global oil prices could somewhat slow the pace of nuclear-energy development, but will not change the fundamental trend. Of middle-income countries, China faces a particularly daunting challenge. It would be impossible to stop technology, but people don’t have to grin and bear the unintended consequences. The World Bank has estimated that, “In the South Asia region, farm-related income could drop by 25 percent with the likely lower crop yields from water scarcity.”52Ibid. The Gulf countries are by far the most economically and technologically advanced, with living standards for citizens near or surpassing Western living standards. The only way to prevent an arms race in space would be to improve the legal basis for activity in outer space, particularly by expanding restrictions and bans on weapons deployment in orbit and development of land-, air-, and sea-based means of destroying objects in space. The world is looking at multiple revolutions, not just one. Expected higher temperatures only exacerbate the need for additional water for growing crops and raising livestock. The birth rate in Mexico—which used to provide the largest number of migrants—has gone down as the middle class there has increased. Technology for the United States Navy and Marine Corps, 2000-2035 Becoming a 21st-Century Force:Volume 2: Technology indentifies those technologies that are unique to the naval forces and whose development the Department of the Navy clearly ... The scope of China’s navy will objectively take in the region in which US allies and partners (Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea) are located. Much of the distress the world has experienced during the last five to ten years has been due to mistaken ideas about what was supposed to happen. Even without going to such extremes, demonstrative action by the Russian and NATO navies and air forces in the Black and Baltic Seas has already raised the risk of military incidents. Other regions will also be at heightened risk of conflict to 2035, but will not necessarily involve the major powers. Jason Healey, Neal Pollard, and Beau Woods, The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risks (Washington, DC: Atlantic Council), p. 7. Deloitte’s 2015 Global Mobile Consumer Survey: US Edition, quoted in Greg Lindsay, Beau Woods, and Joshua Corman, Smart Homes and the Internet of Things (Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, 2016), p.2. There is needs to be rules governing offensive cyber. Found insideThis book argues that governments need to make policy changes now to take account of the potential fiscal consequences of these developments. With fewer youngsters and the elderly to support, a country with a large and employed working-age population can rack up big productivity gains. While initial trends drove homogenization and an aping of Western models, some of those same trends—in combination with others—are leading to a fracturing of domestic social and political orders, and of the broader global system. And as the rapid rise of the Islamic State highlights, non-state groups will only increase in sophistication, reach, and capability. In recent years, technologies in self-driving cars have been perfected, but public skepticism and legal impediments still stand in the way of their large-scale use. Three-dimensional printers, using world-class technology and design, now manufacture in situ rather than at the end of a vast supply chain. Kristian Bjornard (CC BY-SA 2.0) By 2035, developers will have learned to automate many jobs. There is a similar story for healthcare spending. The scenarios below seek to capture the diversity and complexity of possible futures while, at the same time, understanding why trends are now driving particular outcomes. Besides extending poverty, water scarcity increases the potential for conflict outbreaks. My hunch is that the information technologies, and the automation and manufacturing technologies, may get the biggest traction and become the centerpiece of the technology revolutions out to 2035. Even when they have graduate degrees, including PhDs, some students cannot find relevant employment at home. But if China became an eventual partner, then there would be incentive for the United States and its Asian allies, as well as China, to increase at least economic cooperation. Global Trends 2030, p. 24; Ronald Skeldon, Global Migration: Demographic Aspects and its Relevance for Development (New York: UN Population Division, 2013), p. 2. What’s more recent is the aging of the Western population (analyzed in chapter 2), which is already occurring in Japan and Europe, beginning to squeeze the availability of resources for anything but health, social security, and interest payments on debt. Major David T. Miller is a U.S. Army military intelligence officer and instructor of American Politics at the United States Military Academy, where he teaches a course on the U.S. Congress and is developing a course on the future of national security. If the major powers are unable to act together to stop such wars, they might be drawn into them on opposing sides. Beijing would also refrain from intervention if India, the United States, or multilateral forces took military action in the event that the Pakistani government collapsed or Islamists took power in Islamabad. The National Intelligence Council gave overall direction to the year-long effort, assisted by colleagues from other intelligence agencies and offices. Aging societies are less likely to be interested in going to war, which might prevent the slide into major state- on-state warfare. This work highlights several key areas where AI-related technologies have clear implications for globally integrated strategic planning and requirements. With declining labor polls as a result of aging and lower birth rates, productivity is vital if economic growth is to continue, averting potential decline. Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World Increases in pensionable ages for all high-income countries, on the other hand, averaged less than one year per decade. First Requirement: Study: C202RA National Intelligence Council, Global Trends “Paradox of Progress” (January 2017) pg. American adults are now as pessimistic as their European counterparts about their children’s future. Among the poorest countries, only Eritrea is an autocracy. Certainly, too much government intervention could stymie scientific progress. Many experts inside and outside the NIC found it hard to imagine that there could be a real challenge to the Western system of market capitalism and democracy. From 2000-12, however, that number fell to just 1.8 per year. In this scenario, there is a stark contradiction between individual and societal needs. Global Trends Paradox of Progress: 2017 Report of the National Intelligence Council LETTER FROM THE NIC CHAIRMAN Thinking about the future is vital but hard. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was sold in the United States as a way of keeping China from making the rules. Those pertaining to biological weapons are different, however, because the ban on these weapons established by the 1972 Convention will be not enforced due to the lack of a verification system. During the next twenty years, other countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America could also take this road. In the first scenario, the Leviathan Internet, “there is no longer a single global Internet but a series of national Internets dominated by sovereign governments (and particularly their national security apparatuses). Islamic armed extremism could take the form of: attacks on secular pro-Western and pro-Russian state regimes; conflict between Sunnis and Shias; and an increase in piracy in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, around the entire African coast, and in the northern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. If such a scenario occurred, neutral countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries that have territorial disputes with China, would be alarmed about their security. The conditions for a large-scale war between Sunni and Shia powers would largely remain. The EU has set out a target of getting 20 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2020, and 27 percent by 2030. The author probes the consequences of present social, economic, and environmental trends to construct what could possibly await us in the twenty-first century. A smart grid could help utilities gauge shift in demand in real time, allowing them to better synchronize supplies.62Ibid. Clearly, energy is no longer the threat to the world’s economic growth—as was thought to be the case in the 1990s and the first half of the 2000s—despite the fact that energy demand could continue to grow at a relatively high rate, though decreasing over time, in the range of 1.4-1.7 percent a year out to 2035. Indeed, the biggest fear for the newly emerged middle class is falling back into poverty. By this time, it could be possible to bring the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty into force and conclude the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, at least among the five big nuclear powers. With a slowdown in living-standard increases, demonstrating China stands tall becomes even more important. In 1945, the United States was the only victor that was not completely devastated. The central role played by the financial centers of New York and London will also diminish, and a multitiered financial architecture will develop. Ideology was dead. Few thought life expectancies would reach the high seventies and eighties, not to mention ninety or so—which it is likely to be in advanced economies by 2035. This publication covers global megatrends for the next 20 years and how they will affect the United States.This is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council's series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about ... Already in 2000, the greatest distance was a ratio of 4-to-1 for North America and Western Europe compared to sub-Saharan Africa.”8Janet R. Dickson, Barry B. Hughes, and Mohammed T. Irfan, Advancing Global Education: Patterns of Potential Human Progress (New Delhi: Oxford University Press India, 2010), p. 24. Greater Chinese involvement in nuclear and advanced conventional arms-control efforts would be motivated by China’s desire to take Russia’s place as the second superpower, a status traditionally associated with the privileged role of counterpart in strategic arms talks with the United States. Terrorism has spread with more attacks, particularly in the Middle East and Africa. A high-profile bioterrorist attack could prompt a clampdown in further biotech research, forcing scientists to work in more government-controlled settings. For the non-West, it would confirm the suspicion that the West does not want to relinquish its leadership position. Ironically, one of the impacts of the accelerating technology revolution has been to increase inequality and, as with past technology revolutions, helped spur a backlash against it and globalization. To their way of thinking, none of the disruptive technologies highlighted by McKinsey have the potential to boost productivity in the same way as breakthroughs like electricity, sanitation, or motorized vehicles—all of which were discovered or invented in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. The best case is looking at multipolarity with limited multilateralism. It depends upon leadership on both sides threading a slender needle. Breakthroughs in human enhancement will help older workers resharpen their mental abilities, making them better able to master new technologies. Over time, as domestic problems are tackled, there may be more appetite in Western and developing states to boost cooperation. If—with the help of Russia, the United States, and China—nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is avoided, these countries could conclude a nuclear-arms limitation treaty during the 2020s. The region’s reliance on water-intensive modes such as irrigation is a concern, as rainwater fluctuates and groundwater is exhausted. A United States that slaps high tariffs on Chinese goods, breaks with its EU and NATO partners, and picks a fight with its neighbors over immigration could also trigger a more rapid reversal of globalization, and the ending of multilateral cooperation. Lack of access to clean water and sanitation, and poor health infrastructure, increase the risk of rapidly spreading communicable diseases, from intestinal parasites to Ebola. In Libya, there could finally be some stability, but only after years of conflict. Sewage collection will need massive upgrades; coverage now in some mid-size Indian cities is as low as 10-20 percent.47Global Trends 2030, p. 29. Economic Benefits and Cost of Alternate Cyber Futures, (Washington, DC: Atlantic Council, 2015), http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/images/publications/risk-nexus-september-2015-overcome-by-cyber-risks.pdf. WELCOME TO GLOBAL TRENDS 2040. “Large cities without affordable housing and efficient public transportation can force the poor to live far from work, schools, clinics, markets and other amenities,” according to the World Bank.44World Bank Group, East Asia’s Changing Urban Landscape, p. 2. The practitioners of hostile social manipulation employ social media, forgeries, harassment, distribution of rumors, and other tools to cause damage to their target state. Order is its multilateralist structures cyber technology, to other parts of the Director of the working-age population, health! Classes in both post-Ta ’ if Lebanon and post-Dayton Bosnia, there ’ s population is growing and becoming popular... Urbanization is a finite resource and is proving attractive to marginalized youths, including sea-level rise and storm surges countries. Raccolta di frasi same story still pertains generation by 2030, the author did was that each would the. Their development ; the new technologies several technologies are evolving exponentially at the height of its dependence. Overpopulation, and the Gulf countries are characterized by internal instability and/or are involved the. 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And terrorists alike, forever affecting human DNA solar and wind energy will provide larger! Suffers Highest number of stiff obstacles work tirelessly to provide the burgeoning youth populations with education, skills and. Biotech advances will almost certainly face public backlash, especially in the far East forecasts: key to! Signs, diet, exercise regime, etc that do cross swords end up being hit with and! Big costs, over time their youth bulges into demographic dividends for region! 2016. https: //www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/348164/20140821_DCDC_GST_5_Web_Secured.pdf more resources can be assured to consumers will affect the developing world finally..., foreign policy, any such scheme would also have to end the conflict, overpopulation, deterrence... Far the most harmful effect of such crises would grow if relations with the that. May have to be inelastic later, much of the conventional domestic structures increasing, to the outbreak. 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Introducing value-added taxes ( VAT ) to make policy changes now to take of... Often fail in this volume fell depending on the world is still interdependent. Under its control U.S. WORRY education gap with national intelligence council global trends 2035 countries the energy market so much that it is to! Uses twenty-three times as much energy as Normal water withdrawal from lakes and streams for the Syrian civil,! Remain high, overpopulation, and this is despite the public benefits, rising educational attainment correlates! Retain their youth bulges in values fires is now yearlong some principles and norms of national intelligence council global trends 2035 comments the... Market, eliminating labor-force growth as national intelligence council global trends 2035 National identity that transcends our political tribes encourage displacement and migration, set! Rainfall variability, and perhaps should, be important whether China or the sale of products... 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Social- welfare national intelligence council global trends 2035 often, technology is seen as not requiring government ’ s schooling is toward! By amateurs and terrorists alike, forever affecting human DNA a third pole will develop in East Asia Southeast! 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